Except for few pollsters, most are predicting a decisive victory for Clinton and even the Clinton campaign is acting as if they have won the game. The pollsters, who have been predicting decisive victory for Clinton, have accused the non-conformist of Trump bias. One of such poll, which hasn’t submitted itself to a Hillary victory, is IBD/TIPP poll.
While ABC news poll showed 12 points lead for Clinton nationally, IBD/TIPP poll showed that Donald Trump is ahead by 2 points nationally. So when themajority of the pollsters are predicting a Hillary victory, why should we focus on a poll that puts Trump ahead. The answer is, because it’s IBD/TIPP and because history matters.
Over the past three elections, among the 11 national pollsters, IBD/TIPP has been the most accurate, along with Pew Research Centre. In 2004, both TIPP and Pew Predicted a George W. Bush victory over John Kerry. TIPP predicted 2.1 points win, while Pew predicted 2 points win. The actual victory was off 2.5 points. In 2008, TIPP correctly predicted 7.2 points victory for President Obama. Pew had predicted 6 points victory. In 2012, both correctly predicted Obama victory, though themargin of error was large for TIPP (+2.3) than Pew (+0.9).
At a time, when the media and their pollsters have been accused of siding with Clinton campaign (Wikileaks gave out the proof), the poll by the number one pollster matters. We recommend betting in favor of Trump as the payout is extremely generous (17/3).